Tesla Stock Analysis – What is the Fair Value of Tesla’s Stock?

Tesla Stock Analysis – What is the Fair Value of Tesla’s Stock?


Hi, I’m Jimmy in this video I’m going to walk
through my analysis of Tesla ticker symbol TSLA. The goal of this video is to look at
the basics of Tesla’s business and try to determine what Tesla’s stock could be worth
today. And then ideally we want to see if it makes sense for us to try to buy Tesla
stock at the current price. Okay. Let’s jump right in. So how about we start with Tesla’s
revenue? And as we could see here. Well, they’ve done a great job of growing revenue since
2012. Those green bars, those are analyst estimates. And it seems that analysts are
expecting for Tesla’s revenue to continue to increase over the next couple of years.
Now, we may notice that in 2019 it is an estimate, but that’s only because the fourth quarter
of 2019 is not on the books yet. But this part right here is read part. Well, that’s
the amount that is already on the books. So already they’ve booked over 17 billion dollars
in revenue through the first three quarters. That would mean that, according to analyst
estimates, they have to book somewhere in the area of 7 billion dollars in revenue for
the fourth quarter, which is very possible since they posted over 6 billion dollars in
the past two quarters. Okay. Now, I’m sure that most of us already knew that Tesla was
growing at an awesome rate, but clearly their near-term issue is going to be profits. So
this is a chart of Tesla’s profit going back to 2012. And once again, we can see that 2019
estimates, according to analysts, are supposed to have Tesla showing a slight loss in the
profit department. Now, this is interesting and all, but I think we can get a clearer
picture if we switch this over to quarterly numbers, because once we go to quarterly or
we can see that in 2019, the first quarter, there was a big loss. Second quarter was a
bit better, although still a loss. But then in the third quarter, we saw a profit just
like we saw back in the third quarter of 2018. Now in Q4 of 2018, Tesla also saw a profit,
just like analysts are expecting for it to happen in Q4 of 2019. But personally, I think
the key is Q1. It’s the first quarter of 2020. Sure, they need the next quarter to be profitable.
But if Tesla could stay profitable going into 2020, well, that would be their first profitable
first quarter. And I think the Tesla’s stock is likely to react quite nicely to that news.
Okay. Now, regarding Tesla’s business in general, before we try to value Tesla stock, I think
that it’s important to point out that 2019 has been the year of the Model 3. The good
part is that this car is much more affordable than many of Tesla’s other cars. I think they
priced it starting somewhere in the mid 30s or mid 30 thousand dollar range. The negative
side to creating a lower priced car like this is that generally what a company would end
up with is smaller profit margins and that could ultimately hurt Tesla’s stock. But when
we look at the number of Model 3 sold on a quarterly basis over the past couple of years,
well, we can see that they are rapidly increasing the number of model freeze that they’re selling.
And when we add gross profit margins to this chart. Well, now we can see that although
gross profit margins did start dropping in the third quarter of 2018, they didn’t fall
below the first quarter of 2018. And it looks like they’re starting to swing higher. I would’ve
expected a much larger drop off in this. Now, this means only one thing, and that is that
Tesla is cutting costs and this is likely a good thing for Tesla stock. And this brings
me to some good and bad things for us to consider when looking at Tesla stock. First off, the
bad. So the bad is over the past 12 months, Tesla has produced about 350000 cars. And
to put that in perspective, last year, while GM produced about 8 million vehicles, both
wagon produced more than 10 million vehicles. So in an industry that has historically had
a very high barrier to entry, well, the major players in the industry have big economies
of scale compared to a company like Tesla who is still quite small compared to how many
cars the other companies are producing. But the other side of that is that the future
of automobiles is electric vehicles and Tesla is already there. So essentially Tesla is
the future of cars. Now, I’m not saying that Tesla is a shoo in for being successful. In
fact, the first gasoline producer in the United States was created by the I believe their
name was the Dairy Brothers. And they sold their car at that time for a bit over a thousand
dollars. But about 20 or 30 years later, well, Ford created the Model T selling that car
for about three hundred dollars. So lowing lowering the cost is going to be very important
to Tesla’s overall success as far as mass adoption goes. Because whether or not we like
it thirty thousand dollar or mid thirty thousand dollar price range for the Model 3 is simply
too expensive for many, many people. And Elon Musk has stated that he wants Tesla to be
widely adopted. So the key to that is going to be getting the price down, which becomes
very possible with one of their other key advantages, and that’s their battery. Tesla
has a superior battery so they can continue in theory to produce or to lower the costs
of the production costs of their cars, which would allow for a wider and wider adoption.
They have right now they have Gigafactory in Shanghai, which is already producing cars
on a trial basis. And they’re also putting up giga factories in different spots in Europe.
And at the end of the day. Once they have a larger economies of scale. It’s possible
that Tesla could at least remain profitable and ideally continue to grow profitability
at a fairly rapid pace. And this brings us to trying to value Tesla stock today. Now,
any time I want to come up with a fair value of an unprofitable company on an annual basis,
I know that some of the quarterly numbers have been profitable. But since we got to
use annual numbers for that, it could be somewhat tricky. That being said, I’m actually going
to try to use a price to earnings ratio, but since we can’t use 20 19 because 20 19 earnings
aren’t going to be profitable. Well, I think it makes sense for us to look at some assumptions
that analysts are making and then try to use 20 22 estimates to see if we can come up with
what the fair value of Tesla’s stock might be today. So we’re gonna assume that Tesla
goes profitable, they stay profitable, and this is what their earnings per share could
look like if we believe analyst estimate Caesar as far out as I could find, according to analysts
estimates. And according to those estimates, they’re expecting a profitability in 2022
of seventeen dollars and 20 cents per share. So now our question is what multiple which
P E multiple is appropriate to use on twenty twenty two numbers? Now, right now, the S&P
500 is trading at a forward PE of about nineteen X of 40 is when you take the next twelve months
of earnings. So if we were to switch over to a timeline here, let’s imagine that we
believe that Tesla is going to trade at a slight premium to the market. Let’s say we
think that they’re going to trade at that time at a 20 x multiple. So 20 times profits
of the next year, which means that Tesla’s stock would be worth about three hundred and
forty four dollars per share. But the key to this is that’s how much it would be worth
at the start of 2022. Since our assumption is 17 20 in the seventy dollars and 20 cents
they earn through 2022, what is it worth at the start of that? Three hundred forty four
dollars. If we assume that they’re trading at a multiple of 20 times profit, 20 times
profits. But now what do we think this is worth today in order to do that? Well, what
we need to do is we need to discount our three hundred forty four dollars per share by two
time periods to account for the two year gap between where we are now and are 20, 20 to
estimates. Now, let’s assume that we have a required rate of return of 8 percent per
year where we divide our three hundred forty four dollars by one point 0 8. The 0 8 represents
our 8 percent required rate of return. But don’t forget to raise that to the power of
2, which represents the two time periods. And we do that math. We end up with a fair
value at the start of 2020 of two hundred ninety five dollars per share. So given the
test is currently trading at about three hundred thirty dollars per share right now. Well,
for me it seems a Tesla stock is slightly overvalued compared to our calculation of
fair value. And it’s important to point out we wouldn’t even want to buy Tesla stock at
two hundred ninety five dollars per share. We want to buy it at some discount to that
calculation, because that calculation assumes we will get 8 percent per year. And it assumes
the 1720 will be at least close to accurate and that Tesla’s stock will be trading for
20 times next year’s earnings. There’s a lot of assumptions in there. So generally we want
to build a little buffer into where we actually buy it. So we would be somewhere less than
the two hundred ninety five. Dollars per share. Now, if you’re curious to learn more about
when to buy a stock. Well, I actually did a video that focuses on that exact topic and
that could be a good next video to watch. If you’re interested, you haven’t done so
yet. Please hit the thumbs up. Hit the subscribe button. Thank you so much for stick with me
all the way into the video. I really appreciate it. Really helps the channel. Thank you. And
I’ll see in the next video.

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About the Author: Oren Garnes

98 Comments

  1. Tesla stock is VERY expensive, but we also have to keep in mind that some stocks trade at valuations far above competitors and always will base on the idea that their future growth and earnings will be astronomical (although this of course is speculation)

  2. Tesla is a good stock for the long term, no doubt. At todays value it is highly priced in my opinion. I do own some shares. But I bought it in the lower $200. Im waiting on the next earnings to maybe buy more. The competition is far behind tho

  3. Loved that this one was a bit different because you are valuing a less profitable company

  4. I bought a Model 3 (and I'm happy with it) but there is a difference between driving a good car and buying shares from a car company. I think there are investments with a better risk/reward ratio. My 2 cents.

  5. I believe that the price today is not the best to buy in at but also not the worst. I recently started investing in the stock. I don't see the cost dropping below $300

  6. Its always hard to value a company like Tesla 3 especially on their financials. definitely dont blame anyone for holding it though, it really could be the company of the future

  7. I'm a Tesla bull so I may be a little biased and this is just my opinion, but I cannot see Tesla ever trading at a fair PE only because they are the dominant player in EVs. Similar to an Amazon, which trades at an ungodly high PE, Tesla is the player that is growing fast and deserves the value that it's at. Barring some major competitor who could take significant share away from Tesla (anything's possible), I just don't see Tesla ever being a value stock.

  8. I reactionarly sold all my Tesla at 295 without checking how the momentum was going and regretted it within minutes of doing it. I would have definitely sold at 330, and/or 360 by edging out of my position, and was quite happy to see the first weak chart today when i checked them out. I expected it to happen sooner but hype has been Tesla's friend.

    I know loads of people like to buy and hold but so far ive been lucky. If i bought and held i would have had a much smaller position than the one i sold at 295

    Did a quick bit of math. Multiplying my original amount of shares at todays price would mean being 25% down from when i sold at 295. So i missed out a lot of profit by selling too early, but i would have missed out even more by not trading in the first place

  9. If someone bought earlier this year, they would be profitting. Now the price is a little higher but it will hit $350 to $400 soon.

  10. I would love to see your valuation on UBER stock. Personally I love their business model and I expect it to be very profitable but I cant bring my self to buy it right now because of the risk of them not being profitable for years. Do you think the risk/reward ratio is worth it? My Opinion is its worth it at ~$25 for a small spec position and anything under is good for a decent position.

  11. THANK YOU….FINALLY SOMEONE WITH ACCURATE ANALYSIS…. every other video I watched on youtube is either on "Believer" mode or "Anti" mode
    They just love or hate the Tesla solely based on Elon musk
    Even with so many ,I think positive, assumptions it is still over valued
    it all comes down to global economy in 2020
    Do we know their credit rating and how much short term debt they have?

  12. Most automotive companies have a lower P/E but they’re not just a car company, putting them at a P/E of 26 or so puts them in a class with tech like google. I think what you’re missing is Margin … those 2022 estimates are garbage and way to conservative. Elon’s aiming for 25% to 30% margin on 30 billion and if he does that based on model Y profitability , China giga factory efficiency and cost cutting … 2020 alone is looking at $450 to $500…

  13. Tesla is not a profitable company. And I think it's a far leap from analysts to assume such a profit by 2022. It seems foolish to even entertain such an assumption for a company that has yet to turn a full year's profit.

    Tesla is overpriced at any price currently, simply because of the opportunity cost that is lost investing in companies that actually turn a profit. Investing based on future assumptions is more like speculating. Tesla is not an investment, but a speculation.

  14. Hey Learn to Invest. Love the channel. The amount of work and thorough research is put into your stock conclusions is hard to find anywhere else on YouTube. I’m very interested in lesser known stock The Trade Desk (TTD). It is more volatile and it’s growth is massive. Because of this and it’s constant breaking of all-time highs I find it very hard to find fair value for this stock. You have the only fair value calculation method I feel comfortable relying on. If possible would you consider adding a video which calculates the fair value of The Trade Desk stock to this series?
    Thanks

  15. Another great video Jimmy! I like that you show us how to calculate certain metrics…I also like the breakdown you provide. honestly I would watch a one hour in-depth breakdown of any stock of your choice.

  16. Tesla has nothing in common with Ford/VW/Toyota. Wall Street failed to visualize what Elon is creating. The game is just about to start.

  17. Your analysis is dead wrong, but I have no interest to show you why. Sorry, folks, you listen to him, you will miss out the biggest opportunity of a lifetime. That's all I have to say.

  18. This analysis may be incomplete because you assume tesla is just a car company. It is invested in autonomous driving particularly for a taxi network. It is also apparently developing it's own AI system, developing it's advanced battered as well as providing insurance and solar panels. It may be early to say how these other components will affect tesla but the AI component cannot be ignored especially within your time frame.

  19. Great video, Jimmy. I can't argue with the math, but right now Tesla stock is a speculation play. I think someone really interested in it needs to set a firm limit on ownership, let's say no more than 3-5% of net worth invested in the stock for a long hold, because without a crystal ball or a time machine, you simply can't buy this stock as a value play. What's more interesting are Tesla bonds. You should do a video on those, and I think people would learn a lot. For an investor who is of the firm opinion that Tesla has the legs to jump over their hurdles and remain profitable, the bonds are where the money's at (literally and figuratively).

  20. Finally I real video analysis on Tesla showing some actual numbers from they’re financial statements. I see a lot of “ wanna be stock gurus” on YouTube explain why they believe Tesla is a good investment but in reality it’s all pure speculation they are talking about.
    Good job! This video was very informative.

  21. I think the Analysts don't understand TSLA. Just look at there earnings expectations for Q3 and what Tesla reported. They don't know much about Robo Taxis, Energy Storage, Grid stabilisation, Model Y, Cybertruck, Semi, Supercharger Network, Solar…. I think TSLA is very much undervalued.

  22. Very interesting indeed. If I were to consider purchasing any stock that I have valued, I require a substantial discount to this valuation before I buy in. You correctly said this yourself. Gold star for you.

  23. People don't appreciate how quickly Tesla will grow. Just when you think other companies will catch up with them, Tesla comes out with new innovation that leaves everyone else in the dust. It will be a 1T market cap company faster than anybody thinks because it will dominate big markets. Share price should be at $1,000 today.

  24. I do own shears and bought them on the $200's, I would buy more is the stock drops under $299 I think fair price is $320, my reason is because tesla is growing at a higher rate and profits from China made cars would are going to be way better. Also you are not accounting for the energy side of the business, solar is going to be huge in the next 2-3 years and you can already see it in some sites all new construction are required to have solar.

  25. Fair analysis however Tesla will not be trading at 20 pe most likely. This is a high growth high market share company and honestly, 300 dollars is a good buying point in my opinion.

  26. First video of yours that I have seen and I enjoyed it.
    I'm sure one can invest using these methods and do well in the market in general.
    Unfortunately the analysts of Tesla are hopeless and therefore anything calculated from their numbers is useless too.
    I'd bet solid cash that Tesla revenue is >35B in 2020, 40B likely and 45B+ possible.
    Knowing more about a company that you are looking to invest in would be highly advisable. A model 3 is around $40k as base model. Gross margins are improving. Growth will continue way into the future. Profits are there to re-invest so net profit in 2022 will likely be lower than analysts think but investment in growth and R&D for future growth will be huge.
    I think price is pretty fair right now but using your method with my analysis of 2022 profit ( assuming CAPEX & R&D increase by only 20% per year ) they are very good value and the P/E of 20x is also conservative for looking towards future growth beyond 2020.

  27. Tesla is not a car company they are a technology company, its like calling Apple a computer company before the iPhone or the smartphone which is now 70% of their revenue

  28. Wow, never imagined someone intelligent might show how to value Tesla. All I have seen so far is $4000-$6000 nonsense without accounting for the fact that a company must make money for its investors and not just disrupt industries.

    By the way, it feels like you are familiar with Phil Town and his book rule 1 investing. Or maybe that’s from Peter Lynch.

  29. Yes, according to my analysis, Tesla has a fair value of around $290-$300 as well if we use a discount rate of 8%. However, I am not sure if we should be using a discount rate of 8%. For accounting purposes, maybe 8% discount rate is appropriate on certain assets. For an asset like a US equity, 1 to 2% discount rate is not too outrageous.

  30. Given the future of Tesla and the numerous markets they are going to have a major impact on; the current price is a steal. I bought in just below $200 per share and again around $220. My only regret is i didnt have enough spare cash at the time to buy alot!!!

  31. One of my best plays in the options market has always been to short TSLA before earnings. It’s damn near been arbitrage.

  32. Can you analyse the US Government balance sheet and revenue projections. From what I see, they have been participating in massive corporate welfare. They kept companies like TSLA from going bankrupt and seem to have become bankrupt themselves. Won't the USD tanking affect values? Also, when looking 3 years ahead I guess we are assuming that the USA will never go through a normal business cycle again therefore never see recession.

  33. Loved the analysis! Liked how you analyzed the stock like you would any stock. Even if I think the P/E in the example was a bit low in reality, it makes more sense that you choose the P/E you did because that is how we would go about evaluating any stock. Avoids the Bear or Bull bias.

  34. Do you think there is risk of common equity dilution if they have to raise more money and cannot take on more debt? How about liquidity? Could they face a debt servicing crisis if there is a recession induced sales down turn?

  35. I feel that the presenter is getting the exact right answers to the completely wrong questions. I give him props for not being a head-in-the-sand, over-the-top Bull or Bear, and I appreciate that this is "learn to invest". But this is what drives me crazy about so many analysts: there's no historical precedent for comparison with Tesla, particularly in the auto industry. It simply doesn't follow the book rules. Tesla's value has almost nothing to do with the quarterly profits, ratios, or multiples he's spouting. It lives or dies on the technology (and branding) it's advancing. Period. Either you believe that thesis or you don't.

  36. Nice analysis, but its totally profit based right? I’ve heard even a Tesla bear ? (who doesn’t recommend TSLA) suggest its a mistake for them to focus on profits just yet. Working on efficiencies and unit costs etc yes, but they have SO much expansion AND you just treating Tesla as a vehicle manufacturer, right?

    The upside is their tech, bulls believe it is far advanced enough Tesla will turn it into revenue stream themselves (doesn’t sound like Elon who is always driven to push boundaries and make new stuff) OR they’ll licence out their tech OR be taken over, ie sell of the whole freakin thing – either way my 120 TSLA @ 300 should be ok sometime between now an 2025.

    But yeah, its a gamble, a ‘crap-shoot’

  37. If forward earning growth rate is 45-50%, the company deserves a forward PE up to 90-100. Compare with any legacy auto companies are meaningless.

  38. Elon Musk's genius is making billions from unprofitable companies like Tesla and SpaceX. Warren Buffet would not buy a single share in TSLA. Which billionaire is right?

  39. Really good analysis for the most part, but the budget/price per vehicle part isn’t correct. Total cost of ownership is included in cost of Tesla much more than anything else. A $25,000 Camry will most def burn $10,000 in gas/oil changes over 5 years ownership/average driver. That’s why the volumes of Model 3s are being sold and will continue to sell, and the price doesn’t need to go down. Example: we told our bank that we were buying electric, and they said: “oh, so no gas and maintenance. That’ll help”. You know that banks know that vehicle loans aren’t based solely on their MSRP. Once the public becomes more educated about TCO, prices wont need to drop.

    Another point regarding TCO is buying a Tesla today fixes cost per mile. If gas is 20% more expensive in 5 years, doesn’t matter. If electricity goes up that amount in 5 years it’s much more manageable as an extraneous cost.

  40. Crawl..walk..run..Horse…steam..coal…gas…TESLA!
    Ark Investments has them @ $4000 by 2030! ?
    ( remember: Tesla is not ONLY cars)??

  41. There is so much wrong with your assessments I won't bother to lis them all. Essentially, you focus on all the wrong things, and regard Tesla as a car company. It is not a car company. In fact, in 10-15 years, Tesla will not be selling cars to the public… yet will be worth at least 50x more than it is now. That's a certainty…go figure out why… That's my challenge to you.

  42. If I had any disposable income, I'd put it all in TSLA. For heaven's sake they own the future. They own it. There's not even any comparable competition on the horizon.

  43. Dude, please go to school. You're doing misleading calculations. Discounting future stock multiples is simply not an accepted way of doing stock analysis. That said, you came to the right conclusion, that Tesla is overvalued.

  44. One thing I don't see anyone mention about Tesla vs Big Auto….commentators always talk about "economies of scale" regarding the potential of Tesla and using Big Auto as the example based on volume but never talk about what I call the "Economy of Legacy" in that many of these plants that make Big Auto vehicles have been around a LONG time and are already amortized fully. For the forseeable future for Tesla to gain this economy of scale they will NOT benefit from the economy of legacy. This will take decades to realize.

  45. The host of this video brings to light a very relevant mindset. There is an old saying of "The early bird gets the worm" but I would like to extend this saying to "The early bird gets the worm…but the early worm gets eaten". Based on the history of capitalism Tesla exhibits many traits of being the Early Worm.

  46. If you believe analyst estimates for 2022 earnings of course the stock isn’t a buy. The only way to have an opinion about Tesla’s equity is to have an opinion about Tesla’s earnings. We don’t need a simple arithmetic lesson.

  47. Too difficult to watch. Audio is off like an old king fu movie, and so much flamboyant body language its super akward and painful to watch.

  48. The biggest assumption made here is that analysts know what they are talking about. Anyone who's followed Tesla would know that analysts have no clue which direction Tesla's stock will go in the next quarter, nevermind 2 years in the future. What we do know with high degree of certainty, is that Elon will always want to keep up the growth as his grand mission is to move the world forward through his companies. To do so, it would be unwise for Tesla to allow itself to succumb to the lure of a profit as large as $17.2 / share. That kind of profit would only be useful in increasing their cash reserves (which they don't need), pay corporate tax (which is an inefficient use of money) or returned as dividends (which IMO goes against the spirit of investment). I believe Tesla would continue to maximise growth (and there's still a lot of growing to do, and many factories to build) by keeping profits to a level that's just sufficient to repay their debt obligations. Tesla's stock price should be estimated, not based on how much profit it would make, but how much assets, both tangible and intangible, has been built up for a given time horizon. As such, if we were to take into consideration the tangible assets that Tesla currently has (factories, charging infra, services) and the intangible ones like technology lead (3-10 year), brand power (globally respected. China literally rolled out the red carpet for them and so will Germany it seems), mind share (adults and children rave about products so much so they spend zero on marketing), market trajectory (electrification/renewables are the future), synergies with Elon's other companies AND the vision and perseverance of the man himself, I would say the current stock price is way undervalued.

  49. I can clearly see that Tesla Stocks went from 351.00 range down to 333.00 range.
    The guestion is can he sell a Ugly truck ? you can bet his competitors will make theirs look good. Elons competitors could even end up delivering them faster, that's a big factor. Elon still hasn't delivered a new Roadster yet or his Semi Trucks either. Elon also promised a self driving taxi service in 2020, and now he is saying we could wait 2 or 3 years to get this truck. Plus if you crashed it how long would it take to get another one, is he going to give you one to drive while he is building you another one ?
    The bottom line here is when Elon missed the mark on this TRUCK, alot of PEOPLE are now STARTING TO ASK QUESTIONS. That means they are now questioning his results before forking out that hard earned cash. So to me THAT COULD BE A BIG PROBLEM.

  50. Elon is in a war zone and he has won some battle's but he hasn't won the war.
    Elon is battling the oil tycoons that have trillions to lock him up in courts for years.
    A example of this is they won't even let him have a car lot where he can sell them, they only let him show them. These oil tycoons own all the tv networks and won't give him any time unless it's to show his mistakes. I just think Elon should scrape this ugly truck and give it another shot.
    I was going to buy it but when I saw it, I thought no way am I driving that around.
    The oil tycoons have now realized they must start making electric vehicles and are better at building and actually getting the wheels to the road. They are better at the looks the Tesla car the S really isn't that good looking and the dash looks cheap and it's pretty plain.
    Not all people care about safety, for example how safe is a fiberglass Corvette ?
    The present auto builders will have better quality and they will stop at nothing to bankrupt Elon or make him sell out is my guess.

  51. Great analysis, right up til the valuation. PE ratio of 20 is a useful metric for an established company with modest growth expectations. Tesla is neither. It is in the steep part of the curve on growth, with production capacity, product lineup, and multiple revenue streams in early development. Usually revenue and not profit is used to establish valuation for such companies.

    Two major costs of their vehicles are the battery and the brain, both on declining cost curves. They are innovating on manufacturing with CapEx for Shanghai’s M3 line nearly half the cost of Fremont’s. Product pipeline of the Y, Cybertruck, Semi are set to be segment blockbusters. The energy business is described by Musk as “the most misunderstood thing about Tesla.” He predicts that energy could eclipse vehicles for revenue. Solar Roof 3.0 will launch in earnest in 2020. And then there’s autonomy. If Tesla can actually achieve FSD (leading the pack) and launch a robotaxi ride share service, they will create a software based revenue stream with tiny capital costs. This last will probably not kick in til 2023ish.

    I’m long TSLA at current prices. I’m holding stock and Jan2022 options. Q1 2020 earnings (Apr2020) may provide a dip to buy into if a small loss is posted. But I wouldn’t wait to accumulate. That’s just me.

  52. 4:55 "The $35,000 price tag is too much for a lot of people." Well, consider that–according to Kelley Blue Book–in May 2019, the average sale price of a new car was $37,185. This puts the Standard Range+ Model 3 squarely in the middle of what new car buyers are already spending. I believe the question is whether the Model 3 is what new auto shoppers are looking for, and in many cases, maybe not, which is why all current and prospective Tesla investors are anxious to see the release of the Y and how it fares in the market.

    If we extrapolate the Model 3's current level of sales to the Model Y in a year or two's time, I think that paints a far more compelling reason to buy Tesla stock regardless what analysts consider the "fair value" of Tesla, since the vast majority of them are using financial models based on antiquated automakers. Many would argue these models simply don't fit a company that uses an entirely different business model, so anything based on analysts' current estimates is garbage. If you're optimistic that the Cybertruck will be more successful than the media believes, and that Tesla will be successful in their energy efforts (Elon stated that he believes that the Energy business will one day equal or outdo the automotive business), one can build their own range of estimates for Tesla in 2, 5, and 10 year's time, and even with very cautious optimism and back-of-a-napkin math, the analysts' estimates are just … paltry.

  53. This guy is comparing apples and oranges…Tesla is not a car company!! Ford and GM are the Sears and Kodak of the past !!

  54. Tesla is a disruptive technology company. What analysts, including the presenter, don’t get, is that Tesla is also disrupting the Stock Market. Who would have expected a company go from breaking ground to producing cars in less than 11 months? As Starlink comes on line, the Telecommunications industry will be disrupted, especially the infrastructure that the financial markets use to screw the smaller investors.

    “Interesting Times” ahead. . .

  55. This is not a stock you can use these old school fundamental analysis with. These metrics just don’t work, their things you just can’t account for like how people see buying and holding this stock to be for a greater cause other than money, you can’t calculate the love for this brand amongst tree huggers, tech enthusiast & car enthusiast. Also you were talking all about cars but Tesla is also a solar panel company and a energy storage company those are two parts of their business that could be bigger and more profitable than their car business. Think about Apple selling iPhones now iPhone sales are not as important as their other multitude of business segments

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