How Brexit’s Leave and Remain alliances are shaping the election | FT

How Brexit’s Leave and Remain alliances are shaping the election | FT

OK, Election 2019. Plots, Pacts and Possibilities. Robert, we’ve got this
great electoral fight coming on December the 12th. But already there are
suspicions of what I suppose you might call
a bit of ‘match fixing’ up front because one of the
features of the first few days has been the attempt
to form pacts on both sides of
the Brexit divide, so a Leavers’ pact
and a Remainers’ pact. But they’re both
fraught with difficulty. Yes. As they attempt to
form pacts, the failure to form pacts, and
the possibility that the voters will
have got the signal and worked out
what to do anyway. Right. So shall we start
with the Leave side? Yep. Which Nigel Farage, leader
of the Brexit party, has called his ‘unofficial
Leave alliance’ Unilateral Leave. Unilateral Leave
alliance, excuse me, and is only partial, right? Someone says this was rather
like Emma Watson’s announcement that she was self-partnering. Right. As opposed to single. Nigel Farage, apparently
without any quid pro quo from the Conservative
party, announced that he was pulling the Brexit
party out of the 317 seats that the Conservatives
already control, which is a pretty
big concession. One of the pollsters,
Matthew Goodwin, said he reckoned there were
about 35 seats where that could make a real difference
to the Conservatives, 35 marginal seats. So that could be 35 seats
that the Tories would retain. Exactly. As their territory. Exactly. Rather than 35 gains crucially. Yeah, places where the Leave
vote might not be as split. There’s been quite
a lot of briefing from the Brexit party side
about all the conversations they may or may not have had
with Downing Street in order to get this deal. Certainly by Farage’s demeanour
one has to conclude that he’s not completely happy
whatever conversations took place. He has, however, said that he’s
going to stand in the 300-odd other seats of Great Britain
primarily held by the Labour party, some by the
Lib Dems and the SNP. Plaid Cymru, as well, of course. And he’s going to contest
all of those seats. So actually, it’s a
fairly partial concession. It’s a big deal
in the Tory seats. But the fact is in the seats
the Conservative party needs to win… Mm-hmm. …to take this election,
they’re going to face a Brexit party challenge at least in
theory and at least on paper. OK. So what I’ve
attempted to do here, very badly, is not draw a
snowman, but to try and do a, I mean, in a very
loose description, a Venn diagram of the
Leave, what did he call it? Unilateral… Unilateral Leave alliance. Unilateral Leave alliance. So let’s just call it ‘Leave.’ Yeah. OK. Should we also have a
Labour-held seats-bit of this? Yeah, we should. We should, OK. Oh, does that work? Maybe. It’s going to have to, isn’t it? OK. So, let’s plot. Let’s plot what
happens here, then. So, these seats where the Brexit
party and the Conservatives were going to be head to head… Yeah. …do they just happily
go into in Tory column? No, the one
assumption that we all make when we talk about
pacts is to very arrogantly assume that everybody’s vote
can just be handed over. That Nigel Farage has just
gifted all the Brexit party votes in the Conservative
seats to them. And of course, it’s not like
that because if those people wanted to vote Conservative,
they’d have voted Conservative. And some of these
numbers are quite small. And when you get down to
around 1,000-2,000 people, you begin to think they hold
their views quite strongly. And so the fact they haven’t…
they didn’t jump for Theresa May last time, suggests that
maybe they won’t jump this time. Well of course some of
the Brexit party vote, as he’s always maintained, are
people who are actually Labour supporters who’ve gone to the
Brexit party but can’t bring themselves to go to
the Conservatives. So they might be here? That’s right. Again, estimates suggest
that Labour loses one vote to the Brexit party for every
two that the Conservatives lose. That will change, of course,
now that the Conservative seats are not in play. So he will take votes
from Labour as well, which can help the
Conservatives in lots of places, where it pulls down the
Labour vote without hurting the Conservatives. So, there’s some seats
in this sort of area? I mean, how many votes and
how many seats, though, can a Farage party
really take… Actually win? …from Labour do we think? Well, can they win any? I mean, we’ve talked
about Hartlepool. Mm-hmm That would be a possibility. But one or two seats,
or even if that, because it’s about
concentrating the vote… Yeah. …in one seat because the
first past the post is such a tricky… I mean… …system …instinct tells me
they won’t take any. Yeah. I wouldn’t be shocked
if they took one or two. It will slightly
depend, and this is where we’re still
trying to work out what’s going on under the hood,
whether the Conservatives have actually quietly decided not
to bother in a few places and give them a
bit of a clear run. I think one of the
really interesting seats is Peterborough, where the
Brexit party is very, very strong, and which used to
be held by the Conservatives once upon a time. The split between the Brexit
party and the Conservative party could easily keep
Labour in charge of that seat. So I think, most of the
time, this challenge won’t matter too
much unless it’s in a place where voters
are genuinely confused, what is the better Leave option? Some of those will be
very, very fiercely fought. But, I think actually
Nigel Farage has sent a subliminal signal
to voters by his pulling out of the Tory seats, which
is actually saying, look, only the Tories can
win this election. So I think even in the Labour
seats he’s still contesting, in most places, voters will
have got the message that if Brexit’s your
number one concern, you probably ought to vote
for the Conservative party. Well, actually, I would
say it’s been notable how uncomfortable
Nigel Farage has been over the last few days. He’s got pressure on both sides,
people inside the Brexit party who want them to stand firm. There are some rebel
candidates even in these Conservative-facing
seats who are standing anyway. There’s a guy in
Clacton-on-Sea who’s changed his name so
that he can register as a independent
Brexit party candidate in rebellion against
Farage’s unilateral deal. So there is going to be all
sorts of people who feel, as you rightly said, that a
party can’t gift its voters… No …to another party. And I think that becomes
really significant when you look at the
other side of the coin, the Remain alliance. Just one other point. Yeah. The other point, you
have to remember, is that Nigel Farage,
love him or hate him, is a significant
political figure, a significant political
strategist who is capable of seeing
the bigger picture. A lot of his followers are not. And so they’ve bought
into the rhetoric of smashing the
political system, and getting these
corrupt parties out, and we’re going to
change everything. And so suddenly
to be marched down the hill again is
very, very difficult for them and some
of their followers. And once you’ve created
a political organisation, you’ve won the European
elections with a record number of MEPs. You now have a
political organisation. What are you going to do with
all those people and they’re… they’re all fired
up now, and you’ve told them there’s a
fight to be fought? I mean, do feel free to use the
pens, of course, Robert if you want to draw a
little Nigel Farage, because I understand you’re a
bit backward in coming forward on the drawing. There is a reason for that. There is. Although after working
to 9 the other day, maybe I’m prepared to have a go. What I need, I
need a little pair of red trousers
for Nigel Farage. OK, that’s nice. …maybe a nice, blue jacket. And are you putting him
in the Conservative area? Because the other
day he was forced to deny that he would
himself be voting for the Conservative party. No, I put him in
this area because I didn’t think about
it, especially at the time I started drawing. OK. Let’s try and do the
other side, then. Let’s try and do. No, it’s fine. Let’s try and do the
so-called ‘Remain alliance.’ Now, one of the problems
I’m going to have drawing the Remain alliance is
that the Labour party. Well, there’s a limited
Remain alliance. Let’s stick with what we know. Yeah. Let’s stick with what we know. We’ve got the Green party,
we’ve got Plaid Cymru, that’s the Welsh nationalists. Mm-hmm. And we’ve got the Lib Dems. Yeah. We’ve also got like tiny little
parties like Renew who are very a pro… Exactly. …Remain party who also
are now jumping on board. But there’s a huge problem
with the Remain alliance, which is where’s
the Labour party? Oh, it’s just SNP, as well… …not participating. …are not in it. Yes, they’re not in it. That’s true. What should we do for the SNP? Should we just put Labour
and the SNP just completely separately, and
then we can discuss? Go for it. So, the key point with the
Remain alliance parties… Yeah. …is that they are almost all
in a roughly similar place. They all absolutely hate Brexit. They’re absolutely competing
for core Remainer votes. They’re pure Remain. Pure Remain, exactly. Yeah. I mean, which to be
fair, the SNP is as well. But the SNP doesn’t
see any great need to go into alliance
because the NP thinks it is going to do very
well in Scotland anyway. And it has another priority. Exactly. And also that other priority
of Scottish independence certainly jars with
the Liberal Democrats. So that makes it more
difficult for them. The Labour party is
much more complicated. First of all, obviously,
it’s trying to tread a line and not be completely Remain. It wants to keep its
Leave voters, those people up there who are being targeted. By saying we are still going
to negotiate a Brexit deal, and we’re going to put it to
the public, so that’s its… that’s its nuanced position. So it’s not a
Remain party, which obviously precludes from
being in the Remain alliance. Secondly, the party
with whom it would most benefit from any
kind of agreement, which is the Liberal
Democrats, doesn’t like it. Mm. First of all, it’s taken a load
of ex-Labour people who left the Labour party because they
hate Jeremy Corbyn so much. Correct. Jo Swinson, the the
Liberal Democrat leader, is no great fan of his either. And so the problem
is they are finding it very hard to reach
any kind of agreement, much to the fury of Remainers,
who are desperately trying to make one happen,
and who are trying to urge much more
tactical voting and on-the-ground arrangements. But it’s a massive problem
for the Labour Party, this. So on the ground,
there has been a lot of ill feeling and some
really serious local rows. The Lib Dem candidate in
Canterbury, which is a very, very slim Labour hold at the
moment, they took it in 2017, unilaterally, again,
decided to stand down. Lib Dem HQ insisted they would
put another candidate in place. Cue horror from
Labour Remainers. But, of course, Labour’s not
saying that they would stand down in favour of
any of these other… No, exactly. Parties. Actually interestingly,
in Scotland, there are a couple of Greens
who’ve said they’ll stand down for the SNP… Yeah. …because the Greens are
also in favour of Scottish independence. So they don’t mind about
the SNP’s other priorities. We should also…OK, we can
move on to Northern Ireland. Canterbury’s an interesting case
because it’s very, very tight Labour/Conservative, just
held by Rosie Duffield – 180 votes or something in it. Yeah. Lib Dems absolutely nowhere. But if they’re doing well,
it could make the difference. So… I’m going to… I’m going to write ‘Grr’ in
here because they’re very angry. I mean, I do think that when
the Lib Dem vote gets quite low, you’re probably, as you said,
only talking about people who want to vote Lib Dem. So they may not go to the
Labour party in the first place. It’s also possible, of
course, the Lib Dems would’ve taken votes
from the Conservatives. So… Yeah. …standing down may not
actually help the Labour party, although logic suggests it does. So here’s the thing. Standing aside
for other parties, which has happened in this… Yeah. …I mean, we’re saying
quite in a limited way, it’s still 50-60 seats. It may only affect the
result in single figures. But that’s not nothing in
a potential hung parliament scenario. But actually standing
down is not the only way to try and influence your
voters to move across to another column, right? It’s partly, as you were
saying, it’s this signal. If you send this signal,
and even in the seats where you’re not standing
down, you’re saying, you can treat our votes in
this particular election, even if long term, as
slightly interchangeable. Yeah. That’s something that the Labour
party doesn’t really want to do and the Lib Dems don’t
really want to do because they’re
playing a longer game. That’s right, but
also because even though Brexit is
dominating this election, it’s not the only issue. And for the Liberal
Democrats, for Jo Swinson, whose primary targets are
Conservative-held seats, promising not to put
Labour in power is really, really important. I mean, leaving aside what
she actually thinks about it, Conservative voters are
frightened of Jeremy… Conservative members are
frightened of Jeremy Corbyn. He’s keeping people
from the Labour party. So… Well, also Labour defectors
from the Labour party and voters of the same mind
as, for example, Luciana Berger and Chuka
Umunna, also don’t want to have anything to do with Corbyn. So it’s not just Tory voters. And I think, I
mean, Jo Swinson’s in a fix on this because in
a sense, if you’re saying, as she does, is
she’s clearly not going to put Boris
Johnson in power, and she’s not going to put
Jeremy Corbyn in power. In an interview with
us today, she said, ‘she’d rather force
another election.’ I mean she’s still giving
a tiny bit of wiggle room. Hooray, another election! Yeah. So, at some point,
a reasonable voter might say, well,
why exactly am I voting for you if I didn’t
think you’re going to win? But she has made the
decision, probably correctly, that says I cannot be seen to
be someone who will put Jeremy Corbyn in power because I will
lose the Conservative Remainer votes that I’m
primarily targeting. So that’s the other
point about these Remain alliances is there’s other
factors in play, as you said. Yeah. So the other thing that’s been
going on very much beneath the radar but potentially
quite important in that hung parliament scenario because it
affects what alliances either the Tory party or the Labour
party can make in order to govern after
December the 13th, there’s also Northern Ireland. Just before we do this. Yeah. I really want to talk
about Northern Ireland. You can’t… OK. …while I’m standing there. There’s only one thing,
which is that the other thing to note about the two big
players in the virtual alliance is that they are beginning
to see their vote ticking up. And the gap between Labour and
Conservatives and the Brexit party and the Lib Dems is
widening because just the talk about this helps the two
big parties because voters, the one thing voters absolutely
do understand is that it’s always been a
two-party system, and that there is only… there
are only two people who could likely be prime minister. And so all this talk
about tactical alliances is helping the big parties
squeeze the smaller ones. So actually, there’s also
a really interesting… No, no, you want to talk
about Northern Ireland now. Yeah, but you’ve distracted
me with something that’s actually
interesting, which is the point of principle. Mm-hmm. There are actually
some people who don’t like parties to
stand down for each other because they feel
that this is supposed to be a democratic competition. It’s a competition of
ideas, of leadership styles, as you’ve said, who’s going
to be the next prime minister? Actually standing down is a
fix and stitches up the voters. Hm. What do you think about that? Because I actually
think that that’s right. I actually would
prefer situations in which everybody was
offered a slate of candidates. But you can signal
to voters how they can use their vote
as a token if they feel more strongly about
Brexit than something else, for example. I have a lot sympathy
for that view. And I think whatever
the failings of the British electoral
system, voters do understand it. And they know what they’re
doing if they choose not to vote for one of the two big parties. They understand
that in most places that vote will not
ultimately count. But it’s what they believe. It’s what they feel. And they think, well,
actually this is who I am. And I’m voting for
this party, so. OK. What I wanted to say
about Northern Ireland was just this, which
is that, obviously, the Conservative party has –
I’ve just done DUP in green. I can’t do that. I better do it in orange. The Conservative party has only
been able to govern since… A unified Ireland. That’s right. The Conservative party has
only been able to govern for the last two years with
the help of the DUP…. Yeah. …and their 10 MPs. But there is also a
slightly odd Remain alliance in Northern Ireland. Mm-hmm. …which could deprive the
DUP of two or three seats. Yeah. So that again – and I should
just explain what it is – it’s the SDLP, Sinn Féin, who
don’t actually formally take their seats in the,
no but. plus alliance, which is a non-sectarian party. And they are helping each
other potentially deprive the unionists of three seats. Yeah. Although, actually,
it’s slightly – because I think it’s
some – the alliance is not standing aside
for them in the way that they are for the alliance. It’s a tiny party, though. No, but in one of
the three seats they’re targeting,
which I think is South Belfast, the
SDLP and the alliance are fairly close together. And so if voters don’t
understand which way they’re going, that could
lead the DUP, in other words, I think… So it could be
another split vote… It could be, yes. …situation? You can pick the right one. I mean, it’s very interesting. But I mean, then again, I mean,
you wonder how this will play out because say, for
example, in North Belfast, which is Nigel Dodds’s seat,
he’s the leader of the DUP… Yeah. …in the UK parliament. He’s going to be run
quite hard by Sinn Féin if their candidate,
John Finucane, who is the son of the
murdered lawyer, Pat Finucane. And that that’s
really, really close. But the other issue that people
have to think about when they do this is, well,
if it’s Sinn Féin, you’re not actually voting
for an MP who’s going to be in the British parliament. And I think that’s difficult. I think Sinn Féin
refuses – at the moment, its seven MPs who don’t turn up. If they did it would more
or less cancel out the help the DUP gave to
the Conservatives. So electing Sinn
Féin in a DUP seat – is silencing yourself in
the Westminster parliament. And that’s a tricky one
I think for a seat which isn’t inherently nationalist. Interesting though, just from
the politics point of view, that the reason they’re
giving for co-operating with each other is the Brexit
issue, that they are Remainers, and they feel that the
excessive influence of the DUP over the
Conservatives in the last two years has pushed
us to where we are. So it’s an attempt through
a pact to counteract that… Yeah …waiting on the
Brexit argument. I mean, looking at the numbers. I think there’s only one… my
guess is there’s only one place that will make a difference
unless the alliance and SDLP can sort out their problems. All right. I’ll tone it down a bit, then. Nonetheless, it could take
away the leader of the DUP. It could send a
very nasty signal. And I think… isn’t there a
fourth seat held by the Ulster Unionists they’ve also
been stepping aside for? So, again, it has the potential
to make a small difference in Westminster. But I think it has the potential
to make a major difference in Northern Ireland where
this kind of co-operation could be really significant,
also bring the SDLP back into parliament where
they aren’t at the moment, I believe. Can I ask you a Scotland
question, though, because this Leave
alliance here… Mm-hmm. …we’ve talked about the SNP
and the Greens as the kind of Remain Scottish
separatist side of it. But there is something
quite interesting here about the
Brexit party saying they’ll not fight Conservatives
in Conservative-incumbent seats. Because the Tories currently
have a quite healthy 13 Scottish seats. Surely it really does help the
Conservative party in Scotland because they can now be the
Leave vote in Scotland, which is 38 per cent of the
Scots voted to leave, which gets left out of the
conversation quite a lot. It may very well help. Though I think also, I
think the other dynamic, which is so strong in Scotland,
which is the independence dynamic, is as big a factor… Hm. …in seats. So it’s also
establishing yourself as the main voice of unionism
in any specific seat standing against one of the seats
where the Liberals are going to push forward in that way. Yep, that’s right,
Charles Kennedy’s old seat on the very beautiful
west coast of Scotland. It’s said that, in the way that
we were discussing earlier, the Labour party and the Tory
party are standing candidates, but they’re not putting any
effort in because it looks like the Lib Dems… it’s a Lib Dem versus
SNP fight there to see whether they
can retake the seat. But I think it’s going
to be really interesting whether over the
next few weeks you get much more of that informal
agreement to get out of the way and give a party a clear
run rather than more formal alliances. ROBERT SHRIMSLEY: I
think that’s right. And, I mean, it could
make a huge difference because I think the
psychological difference of the SNP making some gains
but still being in the 40s or sweeping the board and
getting up into the 50s is really meaningful
particularly given the pressure they’re talking
about putting on Jeremy Corbyn if he’s in a position to
form a coalition saying, you’ve got to give us
another referendum, and you’ve got to
give it to us fast. So there’s quite a lot to
play for there as well. Well, I think
we’ve done our job. But I think I should do
a sort of T and C’s… Terms and conditions? …section, or a
disclaimer, which is, obviously it’s not to scale. It’s not statistically to scale
because otherwise the Labour party balloon and the
Conservative balloon would be enormous. And everyone else would
look very small indeed.

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About the Author: Oren Garnes


  1. Dear "Financial Times",
    and friends,
    Thank you for posting.
    Up to Minute 0:41
    Okay.. (gasp) ?
    I suppose I'm ready for my sorting hat now.
    With love ?
    #24 out of 50 pieces in
    the "Land of Confusion"
    (a.k.a. the *USA)
    *Some assembly is required.
    *Some settlements may have occured during "ship" ing. ?
    *Viewer discretion may be advised depending on content, and visual displays.
    * Parental Guidence is suggested.

  2. Some people may prefer the conversational approach of these videos but they suffer from drawing these diagrams on the fly. Instead, it's better to create them properly, with attention to accuracy, beforehand, so as to make best use of them as visualisation aids.

    This video is a case in point with confusingly inconsistent labelling, incorrect scaling, erroneous relationships (intersections) and even accidental duplication (why are there 2 separate Labour "sets"? ). All of this could be avoided by prudent preparation, allowing the hosts to focus on the discussion at hand.

    Also, it's 2019 yet they're scribbling on a huge sheet of paper? At least have the decency to use a whiteboard instead… I'm sure the FT can afford one!

  3. I love this commentary and it just displays how terrible FPTP is. None of these alliances would be required if people could just rank their candidates.

  4. The subject about the brexit is very interesting because the brexit became a popular subject in the last time. ???????????? ???

  5. The Tories offering peerages to people like John Mann and Nigel Farage is corruption. Pure and simple. The Tories responsible should be arrested for perverting democracy.

  6. Imagine future generations looking back on this cutting edge video from 2019. They’ll look back on this as a turning point for humanity

  7. Why is no one talking about the fact that huge numbers of people in the country whether they believe that we should remain all leave no longer matters for a lot of people it’s about voting in a government that will be able to Govan instead of a hung parliament again all the talk about this party and the party is a sideshow I think you will find that on election day most people will vote for the party That they believe will be able to Govan and move the country from a polarised position to a country that at long last will be able to move on

  8. Are you forgetting the referendum results where 17+ millions voted to leave the EU. You never once mentioned this from a voters point of view!!!!

  9. I'm just an outsider looking in but if so many people hate Corbyn why hasn't Labour (I feel so wrong spelling it with the U) replaced him?

  10. they keep saying farage has lost ground, making out his party has dropped in popularity.. well, of course it will lose share of vote… because he isn't contenting certain territories.

  11. In NI the Remain alliance wont deny the DUP only 2 seats. It has the potential to take 3 (Nationalist) & 1-2(centrist pro remain). DUP will be lucky to hold 5.

  12. So you ran out of cash for proper graphics and are trying to be cutsy?
    By the way the remainers already formed a pact, remember the Libdems and change UK and the greens for Peterborough?
    So electioneering isn't a new thing

  13. Vile communist in disguise, aka useless bankster puppets woo-ing the naturally or willingly ignorant. All this rubbish talk makes no difference, but to continue the cuttent corruption, theft and oligarchy of war criminals, etc. Tell us how you print to infinitum fake paper tokens, which you call "money", and charge people 16%-1600% interest for real work and resources.

  14. labour voters will vote for brexit party instead of conservatives (if they are brexiteers) because now those labour voters know tories are guaranteed majority of seats in parliament and dont really need to give tories anymore votes.

  15. If you are a remain supporter, do not vote Lib Dems. By them aggressively campaigning for a second referendum, they are inadvertently splitting the remain camp in two, meaning the Tories will beat Labour. Simple fact is Lib Dems are not strong enough to beat Labour, and therefore as remainers, we MUST vote for Labour to stop the tories!

  16. Why is she using paper and markers? Is it her thing? Did she come up with that great idea and thought yeah it would be my thing my signature people would know me when they were asked the marker pen lady. Is she against power points or after effects? Is she making a statement by doing this? No idea. Didn't watch the video as there is not much to watch now brexit is pretty obvious it's brits being brits spineless cowards roared nationalism now meowing back to the comfortzone.

  17. I can't seem to understand how everyone seems to base their positions on data that is three and a half years old. The question is, how many leavers and those who voted to remain have changed their minds since the referendum? do we know for sure how much the opinion of the electorate has changed? I am interested in current data can anyone help?

  18. For me, the choice in this election is very simple – Does one believe in the democratic process (albeit our very flawed model) or not? If one believes our political class should be held to honour their promises & adhere to the directions of the electorate, then one should vote for a party who will enforce their commitment to leave the EU. However, if one does not believe in our politicians honouring results of democratic referendums & their public promises to the electorate, then why vote at all?

  19. Oh wake up, this isn't a Leave or Remain election. It's an election for democracy. A democratic country or an un-democratic country. That's the only question on the ballot.

  20. This weighty analysis with its 'signals', 'get the message'(the recipient Electorate, that is), 'under the hood', kindergarten scratchings, etc, is as refreshing as is the delightful sight of Miranda's medusian hair-and if it frightens the cats, that's their problem.

  21. The commentator ignores the fact that those who elect SF, are not silencing themselves. They are registering a protest vote & effectively ignoring the British state as they dont want to be part of the UK & never did. So the attitude of them silencing themselves is faulty as it ignores the fact they participate in normal times in NI regional politics & regard Dublin & its parliament as theirs & thus apply their lobbying to it not westminister. This strategy has obviously borne more fruit as Westministers traditional modus operandi is to ignore regional voices anyways. Also not being mentioned is the fact their political ideology is quite literally republican in the same was as Ireland, France, USA, China etc. & as such the Westminister parliaments obligatory oath of allegiance to the Queen & Monarchy is antithetical to their beliefs & could never be made in good faith & thus would always be invalid. What might be more worth noting is why if an oath of allegiance to the queen is not needed to take seats in the NI assembly. Why is this not also applicable to WM? Might it be because the british establishment may be as happy to put up barriers to alternative voices in parliament as those would be happy to have them there

  22. The NI remain pact between SDLP/SF/Alliance & Green NI was provoked by the UUP who where going to change to a remain party and contest Dodds seat thus allowing the unionist vote to be split & have SF dethrone him. The DUP moved quickly to bully & harass the UUP back into line & they back peddled on remain. This provoked the Nationalist & constitutionally neutral parties to align against the unionists. This is effectively the death of unionism as nationalism was basically on an equal share before brexit & edging towards surpassing in 10 years. Now the neutral parties are ideologically aligned on social issues already & this unionist brexit pack is effectively forcing the neutrals to pick a side. This is fatal in the long run to unionism as if those neutrals drift into nationalism if forced. Then NI blatantly becomes anti-union in the short term rather than just the long term.

  23. “Europe’s nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be disguised as having an economic purpose which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation “ Jean monnet 1952 originator of the EEC

  24. You call the pacts a stitch-up and denying people a choice, then say that people know their votes will be wasted if they vote ideologically, but then say that people understand FPTP and so it's a decent system. It's only FPTP that compels alliances and pacts; without it everyone could vote for who they wanted, everyone's vote matters, and there would be no need for pacts. First Past the Post is the stitch-up, not the alliances.

  25. How about less of the scribbling and banter and more on the dark money currently bankrolling the Tory Brexit project? Just saying…

  26. With Steptoe Marxist Corbinista head (Leader) of the Labour Party no contest, who would on this earth Vote for this outrageous anti semitic IRA Sympathiser, nevermind Gaddafi etc.

  27. You're back again talking as if this was all normal. But it's [would be] a crime against humanity. Voting to take the rights & identity of people away is not legitimate. Draw a picture of that on your sheet

  28. This diagram is becoming a perfect metaphor of all this Brexit stuff, summed up in a song.
    "I'm for ever blowing bubbles pretty bubbles in the air". Presently Labour is the only party actually trying to bring the country together in a civilised way. They hear the voice of the bulk of the voters which is some want to stay and a small majority more want to leave. Most of those leavers have good brains to work out that a deal is needed to protect the jobs of the working classes and also to protect the aged and vulnerable. So, Labour very sensibly are giving a genuine real option. They will create a real deal(probably already got it prepared) then let us intelligent ordinary people put a stop to bully boy tactics. Corbyn has shown many years of integrity in sticking true to his word. HE WILL HONOUR THE DEAL REMAIN OPTION HIS GOVERNMENT WOULD CREATE. It's time for us all to get over the play boy performances of the tories personal investment plans with trumpetty trump and give the down to earth Fight hard for people's rights a chance. Come on Labour voters show your true colours, and your compassionate mindset that usually looks out for the hard done by. There are plenty of those around after all these years of tory posturing and cutbacks.

  29. The conversation which accompanies the drawing suggests that any graphic (Venn diagram like) representation of this particular electoral conundrum needs to be multi dimensional.

  30. I've got a simple solution: Hire some buses, write that we have left on the sides and then drive up and down the country. Job's a good'un.

  31. Is Nigel Farage The Grand Old Duke of Brexit’ have we been marched to the top only to  be marched back down again , most MPs in parliament want to be ruled by the EU, these are the exact same politicians who have not only totally ignored the referendum but actively tried to reverse it. Your only hope for real change is to join #ForBritain    replace the 650 MPs  with people that believe in Britain

  32. I like that the guy pointed out that 'the public have already worked out what to do anyway'. The elites always insult the intelligence of the British people. We're not stupid.

  33. 1983 is coming down the pipe, Corbyn will resign on Dec 13th, SNP win big. 383 to 407 seats currently projected for the Conservative Party, Overall Majority between 109 and 167. Tory remainers back Boris, Labour Leavers back Boris, +3.4m on 2017 vs -5.4m for Labour, sitting on 165-189 seats. Labour have lost the election, if the trend continues Boris gets 50% and a bigger Majority than Blair got in 1997. Key to watch, Labour key figures and how they come across, will they distance themselves from a disastrous result. If Ed Milliband keeps his seat he might be put forward again as Leader. Kier Starmer, Thornberry expected to be front runners.

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