Economists say recession unlikely before 2020 election

Economists say recession unlikely before 2020 election


CONNELL: I’M SURE YOU HEARD THIS QUESTION A BUNCH OF TIMES WITHIN THE LAST WEEK, WHETHER WE SEE RECESSION BEFORE THE NEXT ELECTION? THERE IS A NEW SURVEY, 38% OF ECONOMISTS SEE A RECESSION NOT UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION. OTHER SIDE OF IT 34% SEE IT BEFORE. WE’LL FIGURE IT OUT I GUESS. TOUGH TO GET THE TIMING RIGHT. THAT IS THE PREDICTION BUSINESS. DEMOCRAT CANDIDATES HOPING FOR A DOWNTURN? SOUNDS THAT WAY. FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR LIZ PEEK WITH US IN STUDIO, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST, CHRIS HAHN AND KEN BLACKWELL JOINS US IN WASHINGTON DID YOU MAKE ANYTHING OF THE TIMING OF THIS SURVEY? ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE, WE’LL CALL PEOPLE WRONG.>>38% OF ECONOMISTS AND 100% OF DEMOCRATS ARE HOPING FOR RECESSION OR THINKING THERE WILL BE ONE. WE HAD AN INVERSION OF THE YIELD CURVE. THAT IS AS YOU WELL KNOW, SUBJECT TO LOTS OF DIFFERENT INTERPRETATIONS BUT IT DID HAPPEN. AROUND THE WORLD YIELDS HAVE PLUNGED TO LEVELS WE’VE NEGATIVE SEEN BEFORE. IN DENMARK TODAY, I READ, THEY ARE ACTUALLY PAYING TO YOU TAKE A MORTGAGE OUT ON YOUR HOUSE. THIS IS KIND OF, THE REAL MANIFESTATION, BIZARRE THING. CONNELL: GO TO GREEN LAND TO RAISE MONEY.>>I THINK ACTUALLY IT’S A GREAT IDEA. STRANGE THINGS ARE HAPPENING IN GERMANY. LAST WEEK I TALKED ABOUT GERMANY COMING UP WITH A FISCAL RESPONSE. IT’S A COUNTRY THAT CAN DO IT. THEIR DEFICIT RUNS 60% OF GDP. THEY’RE IN A POSITION TO BOOST THEIR ECONOMY WHICH WOULD BOOST THE EU SO WE HAVE TO SEE SOME OF THAT STUFF HAPPEN. I THINK IT WILL. SO THE ANSWER IS, WE MAY OR MAY NOT SEE RECESSION. IT IS BY NO MEANS A LOCK. CONNELL: POLITICAL QUESTION, WE’LL GO TO YOU FIRST, KRISTIN, WE’LL GET KEN INVOLVED, ONE THING FOR PEOPLE TO SAY DEMOCRATS ARE ROOTING FOR THE ECONOMY TO TURN SOUTH, WHATEVER THE CASE MAY BE, IF YOU’RE IN ENVIRONMENT OF SLOWING GROWTH RIGHT NOW, HOW DO YOU LOOK AT IT? IT OPENS UP AN ATTACK LINE AGAINST THE PRESIDENT THAT MAYBE THERE THE ECONOMY WAS IN STRENGTH, INSTEAD OF GOING AFTER HIM ON TWEETS AND PERSONALITY, GO AFTER HIM ON ECONOMIC POLICIES? IS THAT A CHANGE OF COURSE LAST FEW MONTHS OR WEEKS FROM THE DEMOCRATS?>>I WILL SAY AS A DEMOCRAT, I’M 100% CERTAINLY NOT HOPING FOR RECESSION. CONNELL: NOT ROOTING AGAINST A COUNTRY.>>I’M NOT ROOTING AGAINST THE COUNTRY. I WORK WITH NUMBER OF MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE ROOTING FOR AMERICAN WORKERS. I THINK THERE IS A POLITICAL CALCULATION HERE, HEADING INTO THE ELECTION, IF THE ECONOMY HITS A DOWNTURN RIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION IT, COULD HAVE IMPACT ON TRUMP. I’M ORIGINALLY FROM TEXAS. WHEN I GO BACK HOME TALK TO PEOPLE WHO ARE TRUMP SUPPORTERS THEY TALK A LOT ABOUT, YOU KNOW, I MAY NOT LIKE THE MANNERISMS — CONNELL: BUT I’M MAKING A LOT OF MONEY.>>BUT I’M DOING WELL RIGHT NOW. CONNELL: HE IS MAKING THAT ARGUMENT, KEN. IN THE LAST RALLY I GUESS IT WAS, LAST COUPLE RALLIES, HEY YOU MAY NOT LIKE ME OR LOVE ME, HATE ME, BUT YOU HAVE TO QUOTE, UNQUOTE HAVE TO VOTE FOR ME. IS THAT HOW THE ELECTION WILL BE DECIDED HERE IN TERMS OF THE ECONOMY?>>LOOK, CONNELL, A RECESSION IS ALWAYS COMING. CONNELL: RIGHT.>>THE POLITICS OF THIS IS, WHEN FOLKS ARE GIVING THREE CHEERS FOR RECESSION, THAT IS PROBLEMATIC. AS A FORMER MAYOR I KNOW HOW RECESSIONS IMPACT MIDDLE AND LOWER INCOME FAMILIES. THEY ARE REALLY, REALLY TOUGH, BUT IF YOU TAKE A LOOK AT CONSUMER SPENDING, IT IS STILL STRONG. AS YOU KNOW, THAT ACCOUNTED FOR ABOUT 2/3 OF THE ECONOMIC GROWTH, YOU KNOW, IN OUR ECONOMY THIS PRESIDENT ACTUALLY GOT TWO TO $3 TRILLION OFF THE FENCE, WORKING IN OUR ECONOMY, IN ACCELERATED GROWTH AND LABOR PARTICIPATION. SO, I THINK THERE ARE STRONG INDICATORS THAT WE’RE GOING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS, SO I WOULD, I THINK RECESSION WILL COME BUT IT WILL PROBABLY COME SOMETIME IN 2021. CONNELL: THAT IS THE THING. TIMING IS EVERYTHING. I WANT TO MOVE TO THE OTHER SIDE FOR A MOMENT, POLITICALLY, TALK ABOUT ELIZABETH WARREN. I CAN ALREADY HEAR SOME OF THE RESPONSES, THAT ELIZABETH WARREN WAS AT A NATIVE-AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL FORUM IN STATE OF IOWA, ADDRESSING CONTROVERSY OVER HER CLAIMS OF HER OWN ANCESTRY AND HERE IS WHAT SHE SAID.>>I WANT TO SAY THIS, LIKE ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN HONEST WITH THEMSELVES, I KNOW THAT I HAVE MADE MISTAKES. I AM SORRY FOR HARM I HAVE CAUSED. I HAVE LISTENED AND I HAVE LEARNED A LOT. AND I AM GRATEFUL FOR THE MANY CONVERSATIONS THAT WE HAVE HAD TOGETHER. IT’S A GREAT HONOR TO BE ABLE TO PARTNER WITH INDIAN COUNTRY. THAT IS WHAT I HAVE TRIED TO DO AS A SENATOR. THAT IS WHAT I PROMISE I WILL DO AS PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE] CONNELL: BACK TO THE PANEL ON THIS ONE. LIZ PEEK, YOU GET TO GO FIRST IS IT?>>I GIVE HER HIGH MARKS FOR SHOWING UP THERE ON TWITTER, THERE WAS AWFUL LOT OF COMMENTARY THIS IS PRETTY IRONIC PLACE FOR HER TO BE. SHE HAS BEEN DISHONEST A LONG TIME. THIS IS NOT SOMETHING SHE DID ONCE OR TWICE. SHE LIED ABOUT THIS CONSISTENTLY TO BOOST HER CAREER. PEOPLE DO HOLD IT AGAINST HER. SHE IS DOING WELL ON BUNCH OF OTHER THINGS. I DON’T THINK IT’S A DEAL BREAKER. CONNELL: I FIND THAT PART OF IT, KRISTIN TO BE VERY INTERESTING, WE ASSUME PEOPLE WILL REACT ONE WAY, IN THIS CASE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS TO AN ISSUE. YOU SAY WHEN THIS CAME OUT, I WOULD HAVE THOUGHT THIS ISSUE, BECAUSE OF THE HONESTY THAT LIZ BRINGS UP WOULD HURT ELIZABETH WARREN’S CANDIDACY MORE, WHILE SHE SEEMED TO FADE IN BEGINNING WHEN IT WAS UP IN THE NEWS, BOY SHE COME ON HERE LATELY. PEOPLE FORGIVE, FORGET, DON’T KNOW.>>BEING HONEST SAYING I HAVE MADE MISTAKES, I THINK PEOPLE LIKE THAT IN CANDIDATES. AND I THINK THAT SHE HAS TAKEN, IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MANY OF BERNIE SANDERS’S SUPPORTERS SHE IS TAKING. CONNELL: WHAT IS GOING ON THERE?>>FOR WHATEVER REASON I THINK BERNIE’S TIME HAS PASSED. CONNELL: RIGHT.>>HE WAS THE CANDIDATE MAYBE THEY SUPPORTED LAST TIME. BUT SHE’S, OTHER VOICE IN THE PARTY THAT KIND OF TAKES THAT, HAS THAT SAME, GROUP OF POLICIES. THEY’RE NOT THAT DIFFERENT REALLY.>>HE IS ONE-TRICK PONY. ONE THING HE TALKS ABOUT. SHE HAS A MILLION THINGS SHE TALKS ABOUT.>>LIST OF ACCOMPLISHMENTS FOR ALL YEARS IN OFFICE IS LAUGHABLE. CONNELL: OTHER THING, KEN, WHICH WE KNOW, THE WORLD WHERE ELIZABETH WARREN IS NOMINEE, WHICH IS NOT THAT FARFETCHED, GOING UP IN THE POLLS, TO KRISTIN’S POINT THERE IS NO BERNIE SANDERS THERE, SHE — WE KNOW HOW DONALD TRUMP WOULD GO AFTER HER. KNOW WHAT EXACTLY PRESIDENT TRUMP WOULD SAY ABOUT HER. I ALWAYS ASK GUESTS THAT AGREE WITH THE PRESIDENT, WOULD HE LICKING HIS CHOPS OVER MATCHUP WITH ELIZABETH WARREN OVER JOE BIDEN?>>IT WOULD BE CLASSIC, CLASSIC SOCIALIST RHETORIC VERSUS A FREE MARKET PRESIDENT THAT ACTUALLY MADE THE FREE MARKET WORK FOR AMERICAN WORKERS AND FAMILIES. AT THE END OF THE DAY, ELIZABETH WARREN IS GOING TO HAVE THE ALBATROSS OF HER BIG LIE HANGING AROUND HER NECK. THE REASON FOR THAT IS, THAT SHE’S ACTUALLY RUNNING FOR THE NOMINATION IN A PARTY THAT ARE THE MAJOR, PRODUCERS OF IDENTITY POLITICS. AS A CONSEQUENCE, AS OPPOSED TO TALKING ABOUT E PLURIBUS UNUM, FROM THE MANY, ONE, SHE WILL BE SADDLED WITH A CAMPAIGN THAT IS DIVIDE AND CONQUER AND PLAYING ONE RACE AND ETHNIC GROUP AGAINST THE OTHER. CONNELL: WHATEVER SIDE YOU’RE ON, IF SHE WOULD AVOID IT IN THE PRIMARY SHE WILL HEAR IT ABOUT

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